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Phoenix Real Estate Inventory Update: July 15

avatarthumbnail.jpgHere’s the full table for absorption rates across the Phoenix real estate market.

Only single-family detached homes are included in the mix for a number of reasons, primarily because comparing detached homes to townhouses or condos (euphemistically called “apartment style” in the MLS) is an apples-to-oranges kind of situation. And I don’t track the other categories because there’s too much subjectivity that goes into how a non-detached home is classified.

If it’s two stories up-and-down and attached it’s almost certainly a townhouse. But so is an end unit in a townhouse complex. If you have neighbors above and below this probably is an “apartment style” condo, but that’s not always how the homes are listed.

Lofts? Usually you need exposed ductwork and the like to be considered a loft (or to have “lofts” in the title) but there’s almost no difference between a loft and an apartment style condo outside the faux rough edges.

Don’t even get me started on patio homes and casitas (attached homes primarily found in active adult communities such as Westbrook Village that don’t have their own category.)

Here’s hoping the new MLS debuting in two weeks removes some of the subjectivity and uncertainty that goes with reviewing listings … but I’m not holding my breath.

As always, all of the below data is provided by the Arizona Regional MLS and is deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

Phoenix Real Estate Inventory: July 15

  Sold Active Absorption  
City 6/15/08-7/14/08 7/15/08 Rate Change
Ahwatukee 6 55 9.17 0.50
Anthem 69 469 6.80 0.48
Avondale 135 950 7.04 0.29
Buckeye 96 1,141 11.89 -0.76
Carefree 7 118 16.86 -2.81
Cave Creek 38 532 14.00 None
Chandler 314 1,858 5.92 0.38
Desert Hills 10 162 16.20 0.30
El Mirage 60 440 7.33 -0.22
Fountain Hills 24 510 21.25 -0.13
Gilbert 359 2,080 5.79 -0.38
Glendale 272 2,086 7.67 0.41
Goodyear 132 878 6.65 0.21
Laveen 57 492 8.63 -0.14
Litchfield Park 54 439 8.13 -0.47
Maricopa 156 797 5.11 -0.02
Mesa 379 3,236 8.54 0.37
Paradise Valley 18 449 24.94 -3.49
Peoria 196 1,637 8.35 -0.21
Phoenix 980 10,352 1056 0.21
Queen Creek 344 1,624 4.72 0.17
Scottsdale 279 3,936 14.11 1.27
Sun City 73 476 6.52 -1.29
Sun City West 47 420 8.94 2.21
Surprise 261 1,543 5.91 0.05
Tempe 88 588 5.93 0.21
Tolleson 54 442 8.19 -0.69
Waddell 9 120 13.33 0.33
Total 4,245 36,758 8.66 0.19

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Quick Phoenix Real Estate Market Update

avatarthumbnail.jpgYet another two-parter today … for those in the Peoria Unified School District, just 27 days until the little ones return to school. ‘Nuff said.

As of this morning there are 36,782 single-family detached homes for sale in Maricopa County, an increase of 24 over a week ago. Sales fell by almost 100 over the preceding 30 days to 4,135 for an absorption rate of 8.89 months in the Phoenix real estate market.

Inventory of bank-owned homes crept over the 5,000 mark to 5,050 and sales kept pace at 1,417 to keep the absorption rate at 3.5 months.

Full numbers from around the Valley will be posted later this afternoon, children willing.

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Surviving a Two-Week Closing

avatarthumbnail.jpg“How fast can we close?”

There are different answers to that question here in the Phoenix real estate market. From the perspective of the title company, a transaction can be completed in about a week. From a lender, the answer might be three weeks to 30 days. From the standpoint of an agent staring at the AAR Purchase Contract … well …

Cash buyers can close as fast as the title company allows. Still, I usually recommend giving at least a three-week window between offer acceptance and the closing date. This allows for a full 10-day inspection period, plus the five-day windows for the sellers to decide what they are going to fix and for the buyer to decide whether to accept the sellers’ decision on the repairs.

Three weeks also gives the buyer the full five days to review the Sellers Property Disclosure Statement, the title commitment and the CLUE report (the CLUE report details the insurance history of the home for the lesser of five years or the amount of time the seller owned the home.)

Three weeks also gives time for all of the repairs to be completed, so you don’t have a termite treatment and a roofer comingto the house on the closing date hours ahead of an inspector coming for a final walkthrough … not that such a thing happened this morning.

Closings can be accomplished in less than three weeks but unless there’s an incredibly compelling reason to do so, take the 21 days … it moves much faster than you would imagine.

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Disclosures, Inspections and Such

avatarthumbnail.jpgMatthew Rathbun this morning wrote an interesting post on Agent Genius discussing the level of responsibility buyers’ agents have (or ought to have) in disclosing material issues about a property to their buyers.

Laws vary considerably from state to state. According to Matthew, sellers are not required to make any disclosures in Virginia. That’s completely different than here in Arizona - at least when the AAR Purchase Contract is used - and sellers are required to complete a six-page disclosure statement about their home.

behind-fridge1.jpgAs for the buyers’ agents … Matthew uses what seems to be a fairly obvious example, the presence of mold on the exterior of the walls.

You don’t need to be an expert in mold to be able to point out that there’s some sort of issue going on in the photo to the left. But it’s well beyond the scope of my training and licensing to be able to tell you the extent of the issue and what exactly needs to be done in terms of remediation. There are mold experts - people specifically trained in this field - who can help with that type of item.

Experience allows me to point out various items as they come up, whether they be some of the more obvious issues such as the mold above or things to consider from a resale standpoint (which comes up more often in new builds than anywhere else.)

But experience still does not make me a licensed home inspector. I will not be checking all of the plumbing fixtures, running the dishwasher, checking the oven or looking in the attic for insulation - that’s for a home inspector to do. I’m not walking the perimeter of the property looking for termite tubes - that’s for a termite inspector to do.

And at the end of the day, responsibility for due diligence in Arizona falls on the shoulders of the buyer. The AAR contract has a pair of clauses that specifically hold harmless the brokers in the event something is discovered after the fact that could have been learned through the use of professional, licensed, qualified inspectors.

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Water and Phoenix Real Estate

avatarthumbnail.jpgWater has been the topic this week for my Canadian clients, more specifically concerns about the Valley’s continued water supply. It appears Canadian television ran a story that said Arizona will be out of water within the next 10 years. What the source was for that story, I have no idea.

That there were such deep concerns seemed ironic Thursday when nearly 2 inches of rain fell in driving sheets and many roads in Glendale and across the Valley soon held several inches of water - but that’s another story for another day.

Before a developer can build they must provide documentation assuring a 100-year supply of water. This isn’t always a rubber stamp approval. In Fountain Hills a few years ago, for example, building permits were stopped because developers were unable to provide such documentation.

There are some private water companies scattered throughout the Valley but the vast majority of areas are serviced by a city water system. And those water systems are fed by the Salt River Project, which diverts water through canals from the Verde and Salt Rivers and also stores water in a series of reservoir lakes.

(The Salt River bed is dry in the Valley because of the reservoirs but anything but once you get north of the lakes.)

Additional water comes to the Valley through the Central Arizona Project, an extended canal that transports water from the Colorado River. Arizona, incidentally, often does not use its allotment of water from the Colorado River … a recent agreement allows the state to sell some of its water to Nevada while some of the water is fed back into underground aquifers.

One important thing to know is we’re all in this together. There are some private water companies relying on wells for their water supply and not SRP or the CAP and they may have slightly different circumstances. But other than those occasional exceptions, SRP and CAP are Valley-wide supplies of water.

Despite 10 years of drought, no real water restrictions have been enacted. Nearly every city has such a plan but none have needed to be activated.

This isn’t to say water shouldn’t be a continuing concern. We are, after all, a desert. But the water supply here in the Valley appears assured for some time to come.

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