There probably has not been a tougher time to be a seller here in the Phoenix real estate market. We’ve had slow markets in the past but the current market doesn’t really equate. Homes are selling at a brisk pace, assuming the owner of the home is a bank and the list price is at or below comparable sales.

It’s an uneven playing field, made even more so by the reality that many buyers won’t look at a home unless it’s bank owned - I can’t tell you how many requests I receive that specificially ask for bank owned homes and my bank owned website now receives nearly as many visits a day as this site.

When sending properties back, I always include all that’s on the market; why not forward information on an owner-occupied home if the price and amenities are compable to the bank owneds? But again, that’s not possible when folks are setting up their own searches only for bank owned properties.

There’s little a seller can do to attract the attention of the latter. If a buyer or his agent is limiting his search to exclude non-bank owneds then we’re simply hooped, as my friends in Alberta would say.

What sellers need to focus on is attracting the attention of those who might be looking for something that doesn’t need the added work and expense required of most bank owned homes. And the only way to do that is price.

Buyers equivocate. They will live without the Corian countertops if they can save a few thousand dollars. Same goes for upgraded tile and stainless steel appliances. By the time the bank owned they’re looking at is upgraded to the same level, they could end up spending as much or more than on a non-bank owned but it’s the perceived value that gets them interested, a perception that doesn’t fade until long after the last trip to the Home Depot is completed.

Marketing absolutely helps … the more websites on which a home is advertised and the more photos likely to keep a buyers’ interest rather than causing them to say no … but at the end of the day, the bulk of my marketing work as a listing agent is to get a good price on the home. Without it, there’s almost no marketing plan in the world that will help.

And just in case you think price isn’t more important than marketing, consider this. The marketing efforts on most bank owned homes is negligible at best. And yet those are the homes whose sales constitute almost 70 percent of the Phoenix real estate  market.

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I’m going to blatantly steal and idea from Seth Meyers and Saturday Night Live for a special edition of a segment they/I call “Really?”

Really? You’re a licensed, theoretically professional real estate agent and you don’t answer the phone when your listing specifically says to call you to arrange  a showing on a home? And wait, this is your home? With its own home office and you still can’t answer the phone? Really?

And when someone decides to pull a Farragut and damn the torpedoes, even though you let the agent and his clients in, you opt to huddle in that home office rather than take a walk around the block? Really?

Because even a beginning agent learns the first time that he or she shows a house with the sellers present that buyers are less comfortable talking and looking when the owners are around. But somehow you either don’t know this or don’t really care? Really?

You represent sellers for a living but don’t follow the basics yourself. And you’re still going to give others advice you don’t follow. Really?

Wow.

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Let’s start with two basic assumptions. First, that the Earth is round. Second, that the Earth spins on its axis counterclockwise causing darkness to fall upon the land in an east-to-west direction on a daily basis.

If we’re already in disagreement, it’s probably best that you stop right here.

For the rest of you who view sunset as inevitable, the basic reality is you can’t outrace the sunset. You can anticipate sunset coming and start racing to the west as fast as you can but at some point the sunset is going to catch up to you. It’s the way of the world.

Many buyers these days expect the Phoenix real estate market to decline another “x” percent. (”X” because the number varies widely depending on who you talk to.) Whether they’re right or wrong, I can’t say. I retired my crystal ball years ago when working as a stockbroker since it was right less often than the Magic 8 ball sitting next to it.

Because of this belief, many decide to fashion their purchase offers based on the decline that they’re expecting to see. They see a survey predicting an 8 percent drop, so they want to make sure their purchase is at least 8 percent below current market so they won’t be impacted by the decline.

They’re trying to outrace the sunset.

Let’s say that their offer is accepted at 8 percent current market value, seemingly giving them that buffer for the decline they see as inevitable. What is market value? Not a static figure, not by a long stretch. Market value simply is the price at which a buyer’s willing to buy and a seller’s willing to sell.

So they purchase this home for 8 percent under the previous sales and current asking prices. We’ll call this property A. When a different seller (or a lender) puts their home on the market the very next day, what are they going to use as a comparable sale? This purchase. And what will they do with their own list price in a declining market if they’re smart? List their homes at or just below the previous sale for property A.

For the sake of argument, we’ll say this new listing goes on the market at the same price at which property A sold. So rather than anticipating the decline, the offer on property A has hastened the very decline that the buyer was worried about in the first place.

This isn’t to say that a buyer shouldn’t be judicious with their offer and try to get the best deal possible. But attempting to outrun a decline you believe to be inevitable by offering that much less and speeding the process is as fruitless as trying to outrun the sun.

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Let’s begin with a fairly basic disclaimer … I have no personal issue with those who attempt (and sometimes succeed) in selling their own homes without the use of a real estate agent. I also have no issue with people who can change their own oil - that gene was lost somewhere between my father and me.

But what I saw yesterday while driving through Corte Bella, a retirement community in Sun City West (but not part of Sun City West) along the south side of Loop 303, made next to no sense: a For Sale By Owner sign, identical in nearly every way to the several other dozen for sale signs.

Identical in appearance but not in representation. It’s possible, if not likely, that the owner also has advertised their own home sale in the newspaper or on an online site such as craigslist. At least, I really hope that’s the case. Because the sign itself is destined to be seen by virtually no one, and certainly far fewer people than would see any other for sale sign in the Phoenix real estate market.

Why? Because Corte Bella is a guard-gated community. Unless you have very specific business inside the development, you’re not going to get past the guards. So the notion of anyone finding the sign on a random drive and calling for information is dubious at best.

For sale signs aren’t the only way to sell a home, of course. In fact, they’re not even one of the most effective. For all of the supposed changes in the real estate industry over the past couple of years, agents working the MLS (and/or sending listings to their clients) and mega-sites such as Realtor.Com still are the dominant players.

One can argue the veracity of Alexa’s traffic rankings, but here’s what you have for Realtor.Com versus Trulia and Zillow, the websites most often cited as those that will force real estate agents out of business.

Zillow actually was ahead of Realtor.com for overall traffic, but from a listings standpoint it remains second-best since many who visit Zillow are less interested in what’s currently for sale than what their home (very) theoretically might be worth.

There also were For Sale by Owner signs up in Westbrook Village when I was showing homes on Friday. These didn’t get shown for the simple reason that I have no information on the properties to pass along - no fliers, no online data, nothing. With clients looking for a specific type of property, the guessing game isn’t usually worth the time.

How much more effective would it be to have the home displayed on a site just for that area that’s seen by buyers around the country as well as in Canada?  And yes, that’s a rhetorical question. Again, if your home’s data isn’t where the buyers are looking for it, it’s as if it’s not really for sale.

The question remains how best to communicate this information to the sellers without sounding condescending (a major drawback to most of the letters I’ve seen designed to be sent to those looking to sell without representation.)

People play roulette rather than or craps because it’s fun; the fact that the odds are stacked entirely against you essentially is irrelevant.

Selling your home isn’t something you do for fun, unless you happen to be a masochist. Since there’s no entertainment value and no free drinks being served, wouldn’t it seem logical to go for the play that gives you the best possible odds of success?

Yes, that was rhetorical as well.

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Since there’s a Christmas present involved in this tale and the person for whom it’s intended might take a look to see what her husband’s writing, I’ll have to make some of this intentionally vague.

Yesterday afternoon I was shopping for a T-shirt emblazoned with the logo of a certain franchise whose arena is utterly bereft of championship banners, unless you count the banners of the other teams who share the same arena.

My first trip was to Target, where I surprised to find there were three Arizona Cardinals shirts and nothing of the franchise I needed. This didn’t appear to be a case of the store running out of the merchandise. There wasn’t even the slightest hint of a display.

Next up was Kohl’s, which happened to be on the way home from another store I can’t mention because it involves a gift for my mother who I know reads this blog (often by herself, as best I can tell.) Here I found the T-shirt I was looking for at the somewhat surprising price of $22.

Three days before Christmas, rain outside, kids at home (so busy with the Guitar Hero they received for Hanukkah that they probably never noticed my absence), I was all set to pull the trigger. In fact, it wasn’t until I was two away from the front of the line that it dawned on me what a stupid decision I had made. Because, just two blocks away …

Oh, yes. Walmart. Partially newly-reconstructed into a pseudo-Super Walmart, with only the grocery section left to rebuild. I strode (ambled? waddled? whatever …) into the store with the utmost confidence that I find what I want at a price that made sense.

And there it was . Essentially the same T-shirt, but this time for $10.97.

End of story … except for the moral.

First - if you’re attempting to sell your home, make sure it’s available. Have it on lockbox and don’t place unnecessary restrictions on the buyer, because they’re going to be looking at the home on their schedule, not yours. Target lost the sale because what I wanted was not available. And I’m none the worse for the experience.

Second - Unless you find someone so desperate for a house two days before Christmas that they’re willing to pay any price and won’t stop themselves at the last second when logic kicks in, overpricing your house is a recipe for disaster.

In this instance, I actually walked into Kohl’s. Most overpriced homes won’t receive even that courtesy. And at the end of the day, the overpriced T-shirt was ignored in favor of the affordable, nearly identical alternative. It didn’t matter that the fine folks at Kohl’s believe that “my shirt is nicer than theirs.” At double the price, the value wasn’t there.

So it goes with your home.

Go with Walmart - price it right, price it to sell, and get the buyers out of your home happy with their purchase.

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