As usual, a two-parter …

We’re seeing a little of the normal summer slowing in the Phoenix real estate market. Listings have crept up over the past two weeks (missed last week’s update while I was attending Inman News’ Real Estate Connect Conference) and sales of single-family detached homes have fallen below 4,000.

We’re looking at 3,838 sales over the past 30 days versus 37,225 active listings for an absorption rate of 9.70 months. Bank owned inventory continued to climb, now to 5,422 active listings - an increase of nearly 10% over the past two weeks. Sales also slowed in the bank owned sector - 1,405 over the past 30 days compared to 1,417 two weeks ago - but the absorption rate still is a relatively brisk 3.86 months.

I’m also looking into a rumor that the housing stimulus bill contains a provision that gives a tax break to those purchasing foreclosed properties, and am hoping against hope that such a provision does not exist. If you’re going to have such an incentive in place (and I’m not really a fan of such incentives, even if it may help my business) it should be for any property and not just REOs. More on that when I find out more.

Full city-by-city stats will be on deck later today …

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Here’s the full table for absorption rates across the Phoenix real estate market.

Only single-family detached homes are included in the mix for a number of reasons, primarily because comparing detached homes to townhouses or condos (euphemistically called “apartment style” in the MLS) is an apples-to-oranges kind of situation. And I don’t track the other categories because there’s too much subjectivity that goes into how a non-detached home is classified.

If it’s two stories up-and-down and attached it’s almost certainly a townhouse. But so is an end unit in a townhouse complex. If you have neighbors above and below this probably is an “apartment style” condo, but that’s not always how the homes are listed.

Lofts? Usually you need exposed ductwork and the like to be considered a loft (or to have “lofts” in the title) but there’s almost no difference between a loft and an apartment style condo outside the faux rough edges.

Don’t even get me started on patio homes and casitas (attached homes primarily found in active adult communities such as Westbrook Village that don’t have their own category.)

Here’s hoping the new MLS debuting in two weeks removes some of the subjectivity and uncertainty that goes with reviewing listings … but I’m not holding my breath.

As always, all of the below data is provided by the Arizona Regional MLS and is deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

Phoenix Real Estate Inventory: July 15

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Yet another two-parter today … for those in the Peoria Unified School District, just 27 days until the little ones return to school. ‘Nuff said.

As of this morning there are 36,782 single-family detached homes for sale in Maricopa County, an increase of 24 over a week ago. Sales fell by almost 100 over the preceding 30 days to 4,135 for an absorption rate of 8.89 months in the Phoenix real estate market.

Inventory of bank-owned homes crept over the 5,000 mark to 5,050 and sales kept pace at 1,417 to keep the absorption rate at 3.5 months.

Full numbers from around the Valley will be posted later this afternoon, children willing.

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When I first started tracking absorption rate figures two years ago this month, my interest was less about the weekly statistics than the trends that could be seen over time. Trends tend to carry more weight than solitary statistics, at least in my mind.

For example … tell me a batter is hitting .372 for a given week and I’ll assume he’s having a good week. Tell me that he hit .372 for a given season and .394 in another I’ll tell you that he had two amazing seasons. Now tell me he has a career batting average of .338 and you’ll have my attention.

(Bonus points if anyone knows the person behind the last two examples.)

Last week I received this comment on my weekly absorption rate post:

1. Calculating “Actives Homes” on the 1st of the month is not accurate, since most of them expire on the previous day and dont get relisted immediately.

As you almost certainly know if you’ve read the blog, I don’t run the numbers on the first of the month; I run them weekly, usually on Tuesdays. In addition, while it’s noteworthy that many listings expire on the first of the month, in the long run it has virtually no real impact on the numbers. There’s no way to compensate for a large number of expireds because not all expireds return to the market.

Case in point … as of this morning, July 8, a full week after the first of the month, inventory was down by a handful of homes. There was no mad rush to return all of the expired listings back to the Arizona Regional MLS. And whatever was put back into the system essentially was absorbed to the point of a near neutral week.

Sales were down slightly, leading to a slightly higher absorption rate at 8.66 months of inventory. In the bank owned arena (and I don’t mean Chase Field), listings and sales both were up by a handful and we’re still at 3.5 months of inventory there.

One side note … some have asked me about pendings but I intentionally don’t track these as they’re neither active listings not completed sales. And there’s no hard and fast way of telling whether these pendings will close or go back active.

Back to the main subject and on to the numbers. As always, all data is provided by the Arizona Regional MLS and is deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

Phoenix Real Estate Inventory: July 8

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We’re going the two-part route again … full city-by-city stats will follow later this afternoon. Ahead of that, this bit of chilling news …

Inventory continued to fall but sales fell off as well over the preceeding 30 days. Bank owned properties represent one in every 7.45 active single-family listings in the Maricopa County. Sales of bank owned homes, however, represent one in every three sales.

Someone asked online a couple of months ago, “how do you compete with a bank owned listing?” The answer, price your home like an REO. That’s where the market is right now.

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