Two nights ago, the first-ever graduating class of Valley Vista High School in Surprise walked across the stage to collect their diplomas. Three years ago, these students walked into a partially-completed school across the street from the Surprise Recreation Complex and began a journey that laid the groundwork for future classes to come.

This school sits in the middle of one of the areas of the Phoenix market that have been hit hardest by foreclosures. Investors descended upon Surprise en masse four years ago and then abruptly walked away as values began to fall.

If nothing else, these seniors prove the lie that is the notion of ghost towns being formed in the desert as the housing market tumbled. This first graduating class was more than 300 strong …

It also seemed somewhat fitting that a school whose mascot is the Monsoon held its first graduation ceremony under skies befitting the monsoon season that soon will begin here in the Valley.

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“Strange days indeed. Most peculiar, mama.” - John Lennon

And so it goes for another week in the Phoenix real estate market. Bank owned inventory has fallen to the point we can count the absorption rate in days, overall inventory tumbled by 800 homes and seven cities have less than three months of inventory remaining on the market. Bank owned inventory continues to trickle through the dam and the line of thirsty buyers trying in vain on multiple properties while waiting for the floodgates to open continues to grow.

Emotion seems to be underestimated as a dominant force in the real estate equation but it’s a driving factor at the moment. Many of the buyers who sat on the sidelines for months have seen the statistics and know the market’s picking up. So they come out of the woodwork just as the moratorium takes hold and inventory starts shrinking precipitously for the first time in months. And soon you have a miniature version of the 2005 hysteria, with buyers writing offers on multiple homes above list price in hopes of getting one.

Banks are noticing, at least on the properties that still are coming to market, and aren’t as inclined to slam the price through the floor in an effort to attract a buyer because now, finally, there are enough buyers. And in the bank owned arena, there are more buyers than there are properties available.

On to the fun with figures …

Inventory of single family detached homes in the Phoenix real estate market encompassing Maricopa County fell by 800 homes to 25,016. Closed sales over the past 30 days rose by just under 300 to 6,702 for an absorption rate of 3.73 months. We’re a long way from the double-digit days, kids.

In the bank owned sector, there were 4,479 closed sales the past 30 days and there are 4,305 active properties as of this morning. The resulting absorption rate is 0.96 months - about 29 days.

(Editor’s note: as I mentioned yesterday, even with the foreclosure moratoriums in effect for owner-occupied property there are bank-owned homes coming to the market - about 670 so far this month - just far fewer than before the moratoriums went into place.)

As for non-bank owned homes, those inventory numbers also continue to improve. There are 20,713 non-bank owned homes on the market and there were 2,223 closed sales the past 30 days for an absorption rate of 9.32 months.

As always, all the details for the various cities and towns in the Phoenix real estate market are below. And also as always, all data is provided by the Arizona Regional MLS and is deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

Phoenix Real Estate Inventory: May 12

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We hit the highlights yesterday with the discovery that inventory’s at a two-year low and that hasn’t changed today.

As of this morning there are 29,674 single family detached homes for sale in Maricopa County - a drop of some 1,300 homes since last week. Of these, 6,413 are bank owned and 23,261 are not.

Over the past 30 days, there have been 5,705 closed sales in the Phoenix real estate market - roughly the same as in last week’s report. These include 3,887 bank owned homes and 1,835 non-bank owned that sold.

With the decrease in inventory the absorption rates also have dropped. Overall, the Phoenix real estate market has 5.20 months inventory of single family detached homes, a decrease of .2 months or about 6 days. Bank owned inventory is down to 1.66 months and non-bank owned inventory also fell to 12.6 months.

As always, details for the different cities and towns in Maricopa County are included on the table below. And also as always, all data is provided by the Arizona Regional MLS and is deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

Phoenix Real Estate Inventory: April 14

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Earlier this week I mentioned the jump in sales of single family detached homes in the Phoenix real estate market. As I said at the time, it was the highest number of sales I’d seen in any month since I started tracking the local absorption rate in 2006.

Actually, the 5,800-plus sales in Maricopa County were the most since October 2005, which was right about the time the market started to slow down.

Here’s how this looks graphically:

I’ve got my theories but it’s probably best for you to draw your own conclusions.

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With special thanks to a client in Wisconsin who sent me some pictures of the snow, Tobey and I would like to present a warmer alternative for March.

Spring training, golf and (best of all) absolutely no snow to shovel awaits those who make the move to Westbrook Village.

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