ALL PHOENIX REAL ESTATE

There’s an old stock investing theory, the gist of which goes that the smart money takes a look at popular opinion and does the opposite. Because at the end of the day, the mentality of the masses usually is wrong.

Individually, we’re intelligent. Collectively, we’re kinda stupid. Have doubts? Check out the people wrestling with each other for free T-shirts at a hockey or basketball game.

But I digress …

Loaded with such a contrarian view, let’s take a look at four common conceptions about the Phoenix real estate market as we move into the second month of 2010:

1) The Phoenix market is rife with shadow inventory, homes that have not yet been put on the market and are silently killing values. I’ll let Russell Shaw’s recent post on Agent Genius speak to this one.

2) There’s a second wave of foreclosures looming that will drown the market. If I’m not mistaken, speculation about this second wave started just under a year ago. It’s still not here. A very long time to wait in the sand wearing water wings, all in all.

3) Bank of America sucks when it comes to short sales, loan modifications and just about whatever else you can think of housing related. No, wait. This one’s true.

4) Short sales are excellent deals. Sure, if you have a couple months minimum to wait and if you’re prepared to pay around market price because the bank’s not going to give too steep of a discount no matter what you hear at the cocktail party.

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After a several month hiatus, it’s the return of the market stats.

When we stopped the weekly statistics posts back in September, there were 19,801 single-family detached homes for sale in Maricopa County. As of today, there are 23,172 single-family homes for sale in the Phoenix real estate market.

Back in September there were  2,800 bank owned homes for sale. As of today, there are 3,588 bank owned homes for sale.

The big difference? Over a 30-day span ending September 17, there were more than 6,000 closed sales in the Phoenix area. Over a 30-day span ending today, there were 4,633 closed sales. As a result, we now have 5 months of inventory where on the last report there were just more than 3 months available.

Which would sound worse if not for the fact that a year ago at this time, we were on a 3,427 sales pace against inventory well over 36,000 and a 10-month supply of homes. Two years ago was 1,800 sales and just shy of 40,000 homes.

In other words, sales remain robust for this time of year; January traditionally is the slowest month of the market as homes being closed on now were purchased just ahead of the winter holidays. Yet we still have a decent sales pace.

As always, aside from the four-month hiatus, details from the various cities and towns in the Phoenix real estate market are below. And also as always, all data is provided by the Arizona Regional MLS and is deemed reliable and somewhat dry but not guaranteed.

Phoenix Real Estate Inventory: January 29

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If you’ve read this blog any length of time you’re probably aware that in addition to my real estate career I’m a free-lance writer for the Associated Press.

This summer will mark 24 years since I first walked into the offices of the Mesa Tribune; this fall will be the 22nd anniversary of my first byline - a thrilling tale of a football game between Safford and Gilbert at old Gilbert High School.

Real estate is my wife; sportswriting remains my mistress, the place I spend my evenings when I’m not at home. (A metaphor I’m sure my mother and wife will love.)

Yesterday - actually about two hours ago - I was working the Suns’ nationally televised game against the Dallas Mavericks. Ever want to know what an NBA game looks like from press row? Here you go …

That’s Tim Kempton on the left, the venerable Al McCoy on the right.

Anyway, one of the things with writing for the Associated Press is your story needs to be done as soon as the game’s over. So, as a writer, you cheat and try to write the story when it appears the outcome no longer is doubt. Which is fine, except teams seem to sense when the AP writer has the story done and they then screw things up.

Such as the Suns, who led for 40 seconds over the first three quarters, coming back from eight points down … something I didn’t realize was happening until I looked up from my screen in time to see Earl Clark sink a 26-footer for his first career 3-pointer.

Scramble, scramble, rewrite … and when all is said and done, the story still was done as the buzzer sounded (even if balky e-mail kept it from being sent as quickly.)

Maybe it’s this kind of experience which allows me to ride the inevitable waves and last minute hiccups that occur in any real estate transaction.

This isn’t to say that I haven’t thrown my share of press notes out the press box window. This spring my laptop didn’t exactly die of natural causes when the wireless went out (though it should have been able to handle my love tap much better than it did. Stupid wussy hard drive.) But in time, with few exceptions, you realize nothing is accomplished through overreaction.

Such lessons translate well to real estate, where part of my job description is to be the voice of reason in situations where reason seems to be on holiday. It’s in these instances that experience does make a difference … a novice writer isn’t going to be able to rewrite a story literally in five minutes and a novice real estate agent isn’t going to be able to find the solution needed quickly, blind dumb luck excepted.

Where are the rewards in all this? For the real estate side of me, it’s days like I had a couple of months back and will have again tomorrow where a client invites me into their new home to show me everything they’ve done since they purchased.

And for the sportswriter in me? It’s listening to ESPN Radio Sportscenter on the way home from downtown, after a 10-minute delay due to a stopped train sitting between me and the parking garage with my car, and hearing the update guy reading verbatim from the game notes I wrote at the end of my story.

No one really knows they’re mine other than me. But you know, knowing the job was well done often is enough.

And with that, kids, it’s 1:18 a.m. Time for bed.

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The pundits say the Canadian dollar is going to rise to par with the American dollar.

Until I see the loony do better than 1.027 I’m not going to believe it. Every time it has approached the $1.02 - $1.03 mark it has pulled back away for one reason or another, though probably not due to a chameleon lying there in the sun.

I still may be proven wrong but the CAD seems much more inclined to Run Runaway.

(And hey, it’s a cool video.)

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Here, in short, is the dilemma. Prospective buyer calls and says if I can find a screaming deal, he’ll jump on a plane in the near future to take a look and possibly purchase.

Sounds simple enough, aside from a few of the details …

1) If it’s really a tremendous deal, the kind that sticks out like a sore thumb in the MLS, odds are we’re not going to be the only ones who see it. Screaming deals, well, scream out for attention.

2) If it’s really a screaming deal, there may not be time to jump on that flight unless you have a jet waiting to go wheels up at the airport and a pilot ready to yell “Clear prop!” (If you watch The Bachelor, that last part should make sense.)

3) If more than one other person spots the deal and more than one offer is submitted, the odds that it’s still going to be a deal once the bidding starts and the price rises are slim.

It’s a common topic here on the website but in most cases the onus is on the buyer to create their own deal. Case in point … one of my clients is two weeks away from closing escrow on the lowest-priced casita in the Gardens in Ventana Lakes in several years.

How? We looked at the property and made an offer.

Last March, another buyer picked up a detached home in Westbrook Village for less than all but a handful of casitas have sold for. How? He made an offer.

After that was done, several other buyers told me if I could find another deal just like that one they’d jump all over it. Here’s the thing … the deal already was there. The difference is he identified the opportunity and made the move. The others didn’t.

I can show you comps but ultimately it’s up to you to determine value, at least in your own eyes. Sometimes homes are priced lower because they’re lower priced homes, if that little catch 22 makes sense.

Ultimately, though, the onus is on the buyer to decide whether they want to try and create a deal for themselves or instead wait until one bites them on the … um … nose.

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