ALL PHOENIX REAL ESTATE

It’s barely been noticeable here, where only a day and a half has passed since the last post, but I found myself out of pocket as they say since Saturday night.

The Wii Fit has been a boon is as much as it has helped me lose 10 pounds over the past month and also see noticeable improvement in my aerobic capacity, which comes in handy when showing 3-story townhouses in 113 degree heat.

Sadly, the Wii Fit has not turned me into a runner. In fact, Saturday’s “fitness tip” all but told me not to do what I was about to do. Paraphrasing …

“Stress and anxiety are major factors for your health. When you find yourself all stressed, try a balance game and have fun while you exercise.

Remember, it’s okay to relax sometimes …”

Much as I ignore the people at McDonald’s offering me a McCafe when I’m ordering the kids’ chicken nuggets, I ignored the suggestion of a relaxing ski run in favor of the Island Run … essentially jogging in place.

Video of what took place mercifully doesn’t exist but this re-creation should suffice.

After five consultations, four blood draws, three ultrasounds, two shots injected into the stomach and a nuclear stress test (in a pear tree) all was reported as normal. Which in itself is a major victory over the FDA and the food pyramid.

Apparently, a person can just pass out (especially if their blood pressure’s been through the roof thanks to the commission-based nature of the business, stupid debates on the real estate blogs about asinine topics and three beagles who refuse to respect my authority.)

What this portends for this endeavor is … well, nothing, except it’s Monday’s evening and I wanted to write a post to thank at least three of the eight nurses and nurses assistants that I saw.

And also to tell anyone who works in the respiratory department that when a patient orders a CPAP, it needs to arrive before, say, 3:15 a.m. Unless your patient also happens to be a vampire.

Though you probably never knew I was gone, I’m glad to be back.

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At least once a week I’ll receive a call or e-mail from someone looking for homes in the $50,000 and lower price range here in the Phoenix real estate market. While the order in which they’re presented varies, the two primary factors rarely do:

1) The would-be buyer wants a property that might need a little work, either so they can build their own sweat equity or later sell the home for a profit.

2)  The would-be buyer will be paying with cash and can close quickly.

Let’s take the second part first. If you’re looking under $50,000, you almost have to be paying in cash. Lenders have a floor below which they won’t write a mortgage. And more importantly, there are dozens of investors looking in this price range, all paying cash and all promising a quick close. Cash in this price range doesn’t give you advantage, it only gets you a ticket to the game.

As for the first part, the basic economics tend to get in the way. Many buyers operate under the assumption that when fixed up - either renovated, repaired or updates - a home selling in the $35,000 range will be worth twice that. Except … given the market in the areas where these homes are located (and keeping in mind they’re priced based on the recent sales in the area) a $35,000 home when fixed up isn’t worth much more than that $35,000 and won’t be until positive appreciation begins.

The other major obstacle is the price of repair as a percentage of the overall cost is far too high to create a margin to resell the home. A new air conditioner is going to cost between $4,000 and $5,000, give or take a couple of hundred. That price doesn’t change based on the cost of the house you’re buying that may need one. On a $50,000 house, that air conditioner already has added 10 percent to the money out the door to repair.

That’s just the air conditioner … built-in appliances, kitchen cabinets, plumbing fixtures and/or whatever else may be missing or in need of repair carry similar (relatively) fixed costs - costs that are a significant portion of the sales price.

So what’s the solution for a would-be investor looking for properties to purchase, improve and still sell at a profit? Aim a bit higher price-wise. Look above the $100,000 mark - in this area, the repairs are a smaller percentage of the overall cost and will be less of a drain percentage-wise on the possible profit.

This, as you can imagine, isn’t always the most welcome advice in a market where all folks seem to hear about are the $45,000 homes flying off the shelves. So be it. The reality is there is a very small window here for investors wanting to fix and flip, whether for the altruistic idea of FHA-eligible homes or simply for the profit. It’s far better to crunch the numbers up front, even if only theoretically, before spending too much time chasing a pot of gold that simply doesn’t exist.

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Returning to the normal reports and not just non-bank owned, non-short sale inventory levels.

Inventory remains low with fewer than single family detached homes on the market in Maricopa County. Bank owned inventory also is low, sitting at just over 3,000 homes across the Phoenix real estate market.

Sales are off slightly - there were 6,460 closed sales over the past 30 days compared to more than 6,600 for the 30 days ending last Thursday. REO sales are down but only by a couple of dozen homes at 3,401.

Overall there is 3.08 months of inventory for all detached homes in Maricopa County, .88 months of inventory for bank owned homes, 4.76 months for short sales and 5.94 months of inventory for non-bank owned, non-short sale homes.

Looking at the median prices for the Phoenix real estate market and it’s a mixed bag. Some communities remain level, others are rising slightly and still others had leveled off but are beginning to fall again. Phoenix’s chart seems to be both the most interesting and the least indicative given the wide disparity in homes available across the city proper.

As always, all the particulars for the cities and towns in the Phoenix real estate market are listed below. And also as always, all data is provided by the Arizona Regional MLS and is deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

Phoenix Real Estate Inventory: August 27

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Yesterday brought about another one of those debates that seem to tie some real estate agents up in knots and send others to their soapboxes in record time. What was most interesting is the debate over this one topic - asking folks who use our home search to provide a name, phone number and e-mail address - remains no different today than it was four years ago.

Once upon a time I didn’t ask anyone to register to search for Phoenix real estate but that changed about a year ago. Why? Well … I hope I don’t shock any of my dear readers with this announcement but I happen to have a career in sales - I sell real estate for a living. It’s not a hobby, it’s the method by which I put food on the table and keep shoes on my growing children’s feet.

That’s the no-brainer side of the equation - I’m providing a small service and all I ask for in return is a name, phone number and e-mail address. Preferably yours, to be specific.

But there’s more to it than that. By registering on this site you’re able to save your custom searches, saving you the time you’d waste having to re-enter the same information over and over again. You’re able to mark your favorite properties and watch them specifically. You’re able to schedule showings and you can ask for additional information. You can add your own notes so when the homes blur together you can be reminded of what you liked.

Yet as robust as Diverse Solutions’ platform may be on this and my other sites, it doesn’t have all the capabilities for custom search that I have in the MLS. So one of the first things I offer to people registering on this site is to have a more complete, more specific custom search set up for them and updated either via e-mail or via a personalized listing portal.

Now … here’s the little secret that goes with the latter portion. Any agent in the Valley with MLS access can set up the same thing. Which is another way of saying that listings are far from the extent of the services offered here. Finding a home often is the easiest task in a real estate market such as this. Having a coherent plan of action to obtain that home’s another story.

What gets completely list in the debate over registration is the fact the listings are just a small part of what real estate agents offer - or at least what they ought to offer. In many ways they’re the free root beer float Sonic offered to get you to buy a hamburger. They are a loss leader, designed to get you to a site and keep you there.

Another fashionable argument in the debate about registration is the idea that anyone who does not ask for such information is pro-consumer and not just a salesman and vice versa, as if something as non-consequential as registration is the litmus test.

Personally, anyone in sales who works so very hard to convince everyone that they aren’t in sales just because they abhor prospecting reminds me of the fable about the scorpion and the frog.  You can dress a beagle in reindeer antlers but he remains a beagle.

Read the comments on Jay Thompson’s post about writing multiple simultaneous offers (and also see the answer I provided on Trulia Voices and posted here) and you’ll see my approach may be different from other agents. Not all real estate agents are the same and not all handle the business of helping buyers buy and sellers sell the same way.

It’s knowledge and expertise and knowing the meaning of hooped that sets apart what I do from other agents. Maybe that’s of interest to you. Perhaps not.

And if it’s not, if all you are looking for is a place to anonymously search Phoenix real estate listings, that’s fine. Here are some places you can do so:

• At Home in Scottsdale
• Arizona Real Estate Notebook
• Phoenix Area Real Estate Blog
• The Phoenix Real Estate Agents
• RodSellsAZHomes.com
• Bloodhound Realty.com

(Jay’s site was on the list but things are changing on his site.)

Now ask yourself … why would I intentionally link to other agents’ home searches from my own blog? I’ll accept insanity as an answer, though I’d prefer to think that I’m crazy as a fox. Because I also know the listings only are the window dressing. It’s the rest of the package that really makes the difference.

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Anguish sells papers.

Throughout the up and down real estate cycle of the past few years, the writers at the Arizona Republic have managed to find people that could be painted as victims, even if not all the facts quite matched up.

When the market was running hot in 2005, it was the buyers who couldn’t get an offer accepted - a story idea that was recycled in the last couple of months. Then it was the sellers throwing cell phones at their agents when they suggested a price reduction because the buyers had gone away.

My personal favorite remains the “victims” of mortgage fraud, who signed blank loan documents, often invented their own level of income to secure a loan and, in this Republic article, expected sympathy because they didn’t receive cash as expected from an illegal “cash back” scheme they participated in.

Sunday’s story reaches a new level, though, if only because Ms. Reagor had to know there was no outpouring of sympathy to follow but merely the usual venom and bile that spews from some people whenever real estate agents are mentioned.

Reading some parts of the story, I’m almost inclined to join in:

Driving out to each property for weekly reports to the lenders has put 30,000 miles on his Porsche during the past year.

It’s almost enough to make you want to have a telethon to help purchase a new Porsche. Anyone want to make a pledge?

Former Valley real-estate agents are working at restaurants, grocery and clothing stores, and temporary office jobs. Some plan to go back to selling homes when the market recovers, while others have given up on the business.

But you know what? Some of us are still here, still selling homes as we always have, still helping first-time buyers move into the property where they’ll raise their families, still helping Canadians and Midwesterners find a place they can use in the winter to escape the cold and snow.

Some of us, rather than taking on second jobs and still trying to act like a full-time agent, buckled down and redoubled our work in the business. Some of us have managed to pay our mortgage every single month without fail. Some of us found it more important to help our clients than act the macher and drive a sports car around town.

How? By working our asses off, mostly.

That, however, doesn’t sell papers or inspire the invective.

Scum of the earth!

Or …

Everyone is having to adjust to what is going on in the US right now. As a teacher, I work a TON of hours over my “contract time”. I don’t complain…I just get it done. It’s tough for everyone right now. ….I don’t think that many people have much sympathy for him.

Wait that one was reasonable … didn’t expect that.

Does the story seem as valid if the microscope is turned back on the journalism industry? Let’s see the story about what happened to the writers from the Tribune when it went under. Or the Rocky Mountain News. Or the Detroit Free Press. Or the dozens of other newspapers that went under in the past year or so.

This isn’t an effort to make light of their suffering; to do so would be cruel and unjust … well, at least unless you’re at the Republic and you have papers to sell.

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