With Cactus League spring training in full swing, how could we possibly go any other direction with this one?
Personally, I’m heading out in a few to catch the Texas Rangers playing the Chicago Cubs. For those who recall I do a little bit of work as a free-lance sportswriter, this is one of those gigs. Not bad work if you can get it.
Get your SPF30, grab a lawn seat somewhere and enjoy the games …
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For those who missed the news earlier in the week, the Phoenix real estate market has the dubious distinction of leading the nation with a 34 percent decline in home prices during the fourth quarter of 2008 according to the Case-Shiller index.
It’s news that is absolutely relevant and largely irrelevant all at the same time, depending on what exactly you happen to be searching for. For instance, check out the median price chart for Scottsdale courtesy of Altos Research:
Granted, Scottsdale is but one city inside the larger Phoenix real estate market (and also one of the more expensive cities) … nevertheless, the 34% decline isn’t reflected here.
It’s also not reflected in the Phoenix area’s retirement communities for one simple reason: the primary factor driving down prices in the Phoenix real estate market are the large number of foreclosed properties, properties that by and large can’t be found in large numbers in the Valley’s active adult communities.
When they do appear the difference in sales price compared to the rest of the area can be stark … recently a detached home in Westbrook Village sold for $120,000, well below the current market. But without additional homes in that same situation, such outlying sales don’t always become comparables … the market continues with only a slight hiccup.
Better than reading the Case Shiller and making a decision solely on that basis, take a closer look at the particulars for the area in which you’re looking to buy. That’s the best way to determine whether a blanket assessment of a real estate market larger than a handful of states applies to any specific neck of the woods.
By the way … if you want to watch the bank owned market in any particular subdivision, e-mail me and I’ll get you set up for automated updates. Or you can search all bank owned homes in the Phoenix MLS here.
Technorati Tags: Phoenix real estate
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My apologies for not providing an inventory update but, as at least my mother has been able to surmise, it’s been a very busy week.
I want to share with you two numbers … 2.07 and 3.61.
The first is the absorption rate for bank owned homes in the city of El Mirage, which more or less is the West Valley’s ground zero for REO properties. Of the 103 sales in El Mirage over the past 30 days, all but nine of them were of bank owned homes. It’s the bulk of what’s for sale - just over half of the homes there are foreclosures - and it’s what people are looking for.
As for the latter number, that’s the overall absorption rate for El Mirage as a whole. As for the absorption rate for non-bank owned properties? That’s right around 20 months. Which isn’t to say it’s impossible. But it does tell you that if you’re trying to sell real estate in El Mirage, you better be priced with the foreclosures.
The pricing picture in El Mirage is pretty predictable …
Now, here’s the flip side of life in El Mirage … rents for a basic 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home are in the low to mid $700s. Homes can be purchased in the $60s. What does the math tell you about that situation?
Overall, inventory in the Phoenix real estate market is falling. As of a few minutes ago there are 35,085 single-family detached homes for sale in Maricopa County, down just under 800 from two weeks ago. Sales over the preceding 30 days were at 4,023, which is about 300 more than the report two weeks back.
The Phoenix real estate market’s absorption rate is 8.72 months.
In the bank owned arena, inventory in the Phoenix real estate market stands at 8,870 homes, a drop of 500 homes. And sales increased to 2,762 from 2,547 two weeks back for an absorption rate of 3.66 months of inventory.
No, we haven’t reached the bottom especially from a pricing standpoint. But let me tell you folks, we’re a lot closer to the bottom in some areas than many might think.
As always, the below table has the numbers from the various cities and towns in the Phoenix real estate market. And also as always, all data is from the Arizona Regional MLS and is deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
| Sold | Active | Absorption | ||
| City | 1/24/09-2/24/09 | 2/24/09 | Rate | Change |
| Anthem | 41 | 269 | 6.56 | -0.44 |
| Avondale | 154 | 852 | 5.53 | -0.84 |
| Buckeye | 135 | 1,161 | 8.60 | -2.29 |
| Carefree | 1 | 148 | 148.00 | 70.50 |
| Cave Creek | 29 | 497 | 17.14 | 1.49 |
| Chandler | 178 | 1,720 | 9.66 | -0.53 |
| Desert Hills | 0 | 73 | Infinity | N/A |
| El Mirage | 103 | 372 | 3.61 | -0.91 |
| Fountain Hills | 22 | 492 | 22.36 | -3.24 |
| Gilbert | 216 | 1,903 | 8.81 | 0.09 |
| Glendale | 256 | 1,853 | 7.24 | -0.61 |
| Goodyear | 104 | 923 | 8.88 | 0.43 |
| Laveen | 74 | 516 | 6.97 | -1.64 |
| Litchfield Park | 47 | 351 | 7.47 | -0.35 |
| Maricopa | 156 | 950 | 6.09 | -0.92 |
| Mesa | 362 | 3,156 | 8.72 | -0.99 |
| Paradise Valley | 13 | 567 | 43.62 | 13.93 |
| Peoria | 169 | 1,508 | 8.92 | -1.52 |
| Phoenix | 1,405 | 9,367 | 6.67 | -0.84 |
| Queen Creek | 286 | 1,549 | 5.42 | -0.32 |
| Scottsdale | 172 | 4,032 | 23.44 | 0.34 |
| Sun City | 58 | 519 | 8.95 | -5.45 |
| Sun City West | 36 | 593 | 16.47 | -1.47 |
| Surprise | 233 | 1,646 | 7.06 | -0.68 |
| Tempe | 50 | 506 | 10.12 | -2.98 |
| Tolleson | 48 | 469 | 9.77 | 0.41 |
| Waddell | 16 | 117 | 7.31 | -4.14 |
| Total | 4,023 | 35,085 | 8.72 | -0.91 |
Technorati Tags: Phoenix real estate, bank owned homes
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I’m going to blatantly steal and idea from Seth Meyers and Saturday Night Live for a special edition of a segment they/I call “Really?”
Really? You’re a licensed, theoretically professional real estate agent and you don’t answer the phone when your listing specifically says to call you to arrange a showing on a home? And wait, this is your home? With its own home office and you still can’t answer the phone? Really?
And when someone decides to pull a Farragut and damn the torpedoes, even though you let the agent and his clients in, you opt to huddle in that home office rather than take a walk around the block? Really?
Because even a beginning agent learns the first time that he or she shows a house with the sellers present that buyers are less comfortable talking and looking when the owners are around. But somehow you either don’t know this or don’t really care? Really?
You represent sellers for a living but don’t follow the basics yourself. And you’re still going to give others advice you don’t follow. Really?
Wow.
Technorati Tags: Phoenix real estate
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My good friend “Sheila” sent me this one a couple of weeks back; didn’t have a chance to do anything with it then but now that it’s late and I haven’t posted and I’m out of good ideas thanks to the Slumdog Millionaire soundtrack echoing in my head, I thought I’d share with you.
From Newsweek … The Canadian Solution.
One tidbit I found interesting:
So what accounts for the genius of the Canadians? Common sense. Over the past 15 years, as the United States and Europe loosened regulations on their financial industries, the Canadians refused to follow suit, seeing the old rules as useful shock absorbers.
Not just friendly folk but also sensible folk … no wonder we’re hooped in comparison.
Technorati Tags: Phoenix real estate
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Listings As They Happen
