Phoenix Real Estate Inventory Update - April 8

Jonathan Dalton, Phoenix Real Estate AgentFirst off, a little bit of housekeeping. The week-over-week change you’ll see if you click on any of the markers actually is the change from two weeks ago.

Last week I posted the Maricopa County-wide numbers, vowed to find the time to run the numbers for all of the individual cities and simply never got a chance. Four homes in escrow, another in negotiations (which will go into escrow tomorrow) and four new listings dominated the week. This will make three mulligans that I’ve had to take in 20 months of tracking the data, so I hope you can find it in your heart to forgive me.

For those new to the series … all of the numbers you see come from the Arizona Regional MLS, but I run the data myself. There’s no master service tracking what I track. Though it usually doesn’t take much more than an hour to run the data and post, there are rare weeks where there’s just not an hour to spare. At least if I want to see my kids.

Also if you’re new - green markers indicate cities and towns where the absorption rate has dropped, red indicate those in which it has risen from the previous report.

As I mentioned earlier, the Phoenix real estate market for single family detached homes has a 12.7-month absorption rate. This is .1 months better than last week - inventory was up by less than 100 net homes and sales also were slightly higher.

Looking at individual cities and towns, here are the five most active areas in the Phoenix real estate market as of today (and no, not all make sense to me):

  1. Sun City West - 6.86 month supply
  2. Surprise - 7.54 months
  3. Ahwatukee - 7.75 months
  4. Queen Creek - 8.06 months
  5. Tolleson - 8.17 months

Instinct tells me that for Surprise, Queen Creek and Tolleson you’re seeing the foreclosure effect - and not the effects of doom everyone protected. More REO properties equals more sales right now … and the more inventory that clears out, the better.

Perception plays a large part in this market. If buyers on the fence perceive the bottom is near (and I’m not saying it is or isn’t) they’ll be more inclined to make a move before they are closed out.

In any event, below is the weekly map. As always, click on any of the below markers for the numbers for any particular city or town. I’m hoping to have some deeper analysis of the trends later in the week, business willing.

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A Consumer’s Bad Experience Damns the Industry

Jonathan Dalton, Phoenix Real Estate AgentTwenty-one years ago I was shopping for my first car. I ended up purchasing a 1980 Monte Carl from Thorobred Chevrolet in Chandler. I can’t begin to explain my surprise when I learned the car didn’t have a required catalytic converter.

Without the catalytic converter there was no way for the car to pass emissions testing - in essence, they sold a car that couldn’t have been sold in current tradition.

I decided at that moment that having been screwed by one dealership, I never would go to another automobile dealership anywhere in the United States to purchase a car again. And on top of that, I’d recommend no one ever go to a dealership either.

Over the top? A bit. Which is why it’s not true. The catalytic converter portion sadly was accurate, but it made little sense to blame every car dealer in the world for one bad experience.

I rescued this comment from a 13-month-old Active Rain post today:

In answering your question “Who’s representing you in your purchase” the truthful answer is NOBODY, especially if you have an employment agreement with an Agent / Brokerage. My agent for a purchase, who I thought was there to represent MY interests, neglected to verify if the seller used a licensed contractor to do requested repairs, which was the specific language in the Contract. Long story short, the repairs were not done to code or by a licensed contractor and failed, causing significaht damage to my home. When I confronted my agent about doing some basic due dilligence with respect to verifying the license status of the contractor, his professional response was “I guess maybe I should have, but I forgot” And of course, there is no offer of compensation from the broker to offset my losses. And as for filing a complaint with ADRE, what a joke. I was told by them that the agent is not responsible for doing that under the “normal” practice of real estate sales. NORMAL what the hell does that mean I ask, well it means that the agent is allowed to collect a 10K commission and have no responsibility, liability, or accountability to ANYONE. What a career - great money, very little education required, no liability - just push the paper and collect the check. I will NEVER use or recommend anyone to use a realtor for any purchase or sale. In the marketing they tell you that they are here to help you through the complex issues of real estate transaction - what a load of crap. The only interest a realtor has is getting the comission check and to hell with everything else. Who needs a realtor, hell you are better off fending for yourself. Read the purchase contract very carefully. The realtors association have worked very hard with their attorney’s over the years adding line after line of text for the purpose of relaesing the realtor from harm. Lesson learned - hire an Attorney to help you, not a carbon-copy contract pushing commission hungry imp looking to buy a Lexus. The real estate environment here in Phoenix is bad enough, and the cherry on top of the cake is the Phoenix Area Associations of Realtors and their incompetent members.

Lets see if you have the guts to post a real consumer’s story on how a so called “expert” screwed a client. My guess is that since you are a realtor yourself, this will find its way into the recycle bin. If nothing else, perhaps you can not make the same mistake with a client of yours. If this does make the blog, my guess is that I will be called names, criticized, and labeled as disgruntled - fine. Let any one of you tell me otherwise how you would feel if you were in my shoes.

Needless to say, something seriously went wrong here. The basic contract doesn’t require a contractor to be used - it would have to be requested on the Buyers’ Inspection Notice. Even there, unless the seller responds that they’re using a contractor, it’s not required.

If a contractor was agreed upon, should the agent have asked for receipts and the like? Absolutely. Does this absolve the seller of the responsibility of doing the same? No. Hiring an agent doesn’t absolve a buyer or seller of responsibility in a sale.

To this person’s point, there are a pair of “don’t blame the broker clauses” in the contract. The language essentially says a buyer should hire a home inspector, specialized inspector and make sure everything about the house is to their satisfaction. This is in place mostly to prevent frivolous lawsuits - you didn’t tell me there was a gravel pit a quarter mile away (even if it’s in plain view and couldn’t have been missed) - that sort of thing.

But to the larger issue - not all agents are the same. Saying no one ever should use an agent because one agent may not have been as diligent as necessary is more than a little over the top. If you hired your cousin (a situation which I mentioned earlier in the week) and both of you know your cousin knows little about real estate, where does the fault lie?

Hiring an experienced, educated, competent agent would have prevented the above situation from happening. The onus is on the buyer to make sure that the person they’re hiring fits the above description.

Just like it’s not right for me to blame every auto dealer on the planet because of my one bad experience, it doesn’t make much sense to blame every Realtor in Arizona for one poor agent’s error.

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Very Quick Phoenix Real Estate Inventory Update

Jonathan Dalton, Phoenix Real Estate AgentVery quickly, as I have folks heading to Ventana Lakes for a final walkthrough and documents signing …

Inventory’s roughly flat with 39,403 single family detached homes for sale in the Phoenix real estate market. Sales were 3,107 for an absorption rate of 12.7 months.

REO and bank owned homes have a 5.5-month absorption rate - 712 sales against 3,933 active listings. Short sales are at 11.1 months - 344 sales against 4,353 listings.

Full numbers later … yes, I said that last week too but today it will happen.

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