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Quick Phoenix Real Estate Inventory Update

Jonathan Dalton, Phoenix Real Estate AgentNothing here to do with April Fool’s Day, my dear readers. Couldn’t come up with anything sufficiently inspired that also wouldn’t run afoul of NAR’s Code of Ethics.

I’ll have the usual map up later on today after a few appointments but here are the highlights from the Phoenix real estate market:

  • Inventory fell by just over 700 homes. Considering yesterday was the last day of the month, expirations would be the primary cause and they were - 546 single-family listings in Maricopa County expired yesterday.
  • Sales over the past 30 days jumped to 3,072 - it’s the first time we’ve been across 3,000 for any of these rolling 30 day periods since August 27.
  • Absorption rate overall for single family homes in the Phoenix Real Estate market is 12.8 months.
  • Absorption rate for bank owned homes is now 5.4 months - 707 sales vs. 3,846 current listings. And for short sales it’s 11.5 months - 364 sales vs. 4,193 listings.

Also of note, REO and short sales accounted for just over a third of total sales, which is a bit smaller percentage than we’ve seen in recent weeks.

The overriding message, especially if you’re a seller … this is the high season. School nearly is out and folks are looking now for where they’re going to be at the end of the year. If you have been hemming and hawing about when to put your home on the market, and if you’re prepared to have your home in good condition and priced aggressively, now is the time to get it on the market.

The market’s still soft but it’s less soft than it will be in a few months’ time once school begins again.

Full maps and numbers later.

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Blind Squirrel Finds a Nut

Jonathan Dalton, Phoenix Real Estate AgentFirst, I started predicting the offers “the banker” would be making on Deal or No Deal (which my wife forced me to watch) and came within a couple thousand one way or the other 9 out of 10 times.

Second, I started predicting the scores on Dancing With the Stars (which my wife forced me to watch) and came within one of the total 9 out of 10 times.

A week and a half ago, I ran a market analysis for one of my buyers for a home in Ventana Lakes, an active adult community straddling Sun City and Peoria, and estimated the home they wanted to purchase was worth around $244,000 to $245,000. They offered a bit less and got the house; we close next week. Even though it’s a cash offer they wanted an appraisal, just to be sure.

The appraisal came in right around $245,000.

Next up - guessing the Powerball numbers. This one might be a little tougher.

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That Magic 8 Ball’s Getting Cloudy

Jonathan Dalton, Phoenix Real Estate AgentIn what only can be described as the perfect wedding, our buyer who keeps looking for free pricing advice for Buckeye’s Verrado subdivision from panting agents on Trulia Voices who can’t seem to remember she has an agent received a response from the “wait, rent” respondent with the Magic 8 ball.

We’ll skip the usual questions about why real estate agents are so anxious to provide advice to someone who proudly proclaims they’re working with an agent (and who goes to great lengths to compliment the agent they’re attempting to second-guess online) and go to the Magic 8 ball:

wait
i’m pretty sure they’ll be cheaper in the near future
each area is different
but the trend is your friend
and the trend is down
1/2 sounds good
but what if the house price run up was 400%
just for comparison
compare to before bubble 2000-2001 prices

anyways

good luck

Let’s see … in 2000 and 2001, Verrado was dirt and cactus. It didn’t yet exist. Of course, the run-up in prices here in Phoenix also hadn’t yet happened. Not that such things matter when the panel appears in the Magic 8 ball’s window.

Sound advice indeed, and further proof that you get what you pay for.

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