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Phoenix Real Estate Absorption Rate: January 15

Jonathan Dalton, Phoenix Real Estate AgentAs promised, here’s the full city-by-city absorption rate for the Phoenix real estate market. Only single-family properties are listed and all data is provided by the Arizona Regional MLS and is deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

As I was putting this together I had a “no, wait, really?” moment. Every week I run the numbers and plug them into the spreadsheet. I always glance at the absorption rates to see the change from the prior week but virtually never look at the raw sales numbers.

The market’s been slow, folks. There are no two ways around it. The key to selling in a market such as this is to have the home in the best condition and with the best price (or one of the best couple of prices.) Anything else and it will sit … and sit … and sit.

As always, click on any of the markers below to see the particulars for a given community. I’ll try and get this up in tabular format later today.

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Quick Phoenix Real Estate Absorption Rate

Jonathan Dalton, Phoenix Real Estate AgentCity-by-city numbers won’t be available until this afternoon but the overall absorption rate for the Phoenix Real Estate market jumped to 18.09 months.

Inventory of single-family detached homes in Maricopa County rose by more than 700 homes to 38,226 while sales fell off to 2,113 - the lowest figure for a 30-day period since I started tracking the data in July 2006.

Sales likely will continue to decline over the next two weekly updates; they’re a lagging indicator of what was happening in the market roughly 30 days ago.

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Your NAR Public Awareness Dollars at Work

Jonathan Dalton, Phoenix Real Estate AgentJay was the first to trip over NAR’s shiny new website, Housing Market Facts. If you’re expecting any sort of revelation about the real estate market you’re going to be sorely disappointed.

Instead we’re treated to the same drivel as always … over the past 30 years, home values have risen more than 6 percent annually.

In a related revelation, the Miami Dolphins have made 16 playoff appearances and won two division conference titles over the same 30 years. And you know what? That doesn’t change the fact that they were a horrific 1-15 this past season. But why speak to current reality when we can point to historical data?

Thirty-year averages may make sense if you’re my parents, who have lived in the same house for the past 31. But since most Americans move every five years or so (statistics also provided by NAR), what happens over such a span of time is largely irrelevant to the masses.

But hey - at least all of us with NAR membership got to pony up to fund this hard-hitting and clearly illuminating campaign.

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If You Believe the Phoenix Real Estate Market Will Collapse …

Jonathan Dalton, Phoenix Real Estate Agent… then this post from the BawldGuy isn’t going to be of use to you. If you’re anticipating flat to slightly negative appreciation, it’s worth a look. If you don’t know who Jeff Brown is and you’re an investor (not a speculator - someone who actually wants to make money), you had better find out.

Now all you have to do is find the right properties.

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