ALL PHOENIX REAL ESTATE

Okay, so one more post in 2007. I couldn’t possibly let Lawrence Yun’s final proclamation of 2007 go without mention:

Existing-home sales rose slightly in November, indicating a stabilization in housing in the wake of mortgage disruptions earlier this year, according to the National Assn. of REALTORS®.

Total existing-home sales – including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – rose 0.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate (1) of 5.00 million units in November from an upwardly revised pace of 4.98 million in October, but are 20.0% below the 6.25 million-unit level in November 2006.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the market appears to be stabilizing.  “Near term, existing-home sales should continue to hover in a narrow range, just as they have since September, and that’s good news because it’ll be a further sign that the housing market is stabilizing,” he said.  “Mortgage interest rates are near historic lows and the most current data shows decelerating price declines, along with a modest reduction in the number of homes on the market.”  Disruptions in mortgage availability and pricing peaked in August, which caused sales to slow in subsequent months.

Thanks for all the laughs in 2007, Larry. I only wish my dues weren’t going to pay your salary but that’s out of my control.

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While I opted out of the 2008 predictions, it’s too hard passing up the other popular blog post crutch this time of year … the year’s most popular posts.

Including this one, we had 722 posts this year. Most dealt with real estate, others were a little more personal, and the Friday afternoon music series was just a lot of fun.

Without further adieu, here’s this year’s Top 10:

1. Someday My Princess Will Come
2. Inspectors on the Roof
3. First Redfin, Now an Arizona FSBO Site
4. Real Estate 2.0 and the Phoenix Real Estate Consumer
5. Gold Jacket … Umm, Maybe
6. Sell Your Phoenix Real Estate in Two Weeks
7. Real Estate at Walmart: Where All Prices End in 87 Cents
8. What Have We Taught Our Clients
9. Preparing for a Short Sale in Phoenix Real Estate
10. Calgary is the New California

You also can take a trip down memory lane with last year’s top five from my inaugural blog on Realtown.

Whatever you do this evening, keep it fun and keep it safe. We’ll see you on the other side …

Technorati Tags: Phoenix real estate, real estate marketing

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Whatever your goal in the Phoenix real estate market, make 2008 the year you bring that goal to fruition. This likely can apply to far more than real estate but this is a real estate blog so we’ll keep the focus there.

If your plan is to sell your home, sell. Easier said than done you might say and that’s true to some degree. But review your selling strategy to date … if one of these applies to your sale then changes are in order for the new year:

• Your list price is not among the three lowest in your neighborhood
• You did not authorize your agent to use a lockbox
• You keep your alarm activated throughout the day (hint: given the choice between showing two homes, one where we have to futz with an alarm and one where the alarm has been deactivated, guess which one gets shown?)
• You otherwise are restricting access to your home - showings by appointment only, only on weekends, only after 3 p.m.
• You have a faucet that’s leaking, paint that’s peeling or termite tubes climbing up your walls - all left untouched because the buyer can adjust by price.
• The only place your home is advertised is the MLS because you opted for a $300 flat rate rather than professional marketing

Conversely, if you’ve been debating whether to buy now or later in Phoenix despite all evidence that timing the market for an absolute bottom is impossible, make 2008 the year you narrow your focus to what suits your needs:

• Skip the short sales. Skip the short sales. Skip the short sales.
• Take a hard look at lender-owned properties. If you don’t mind a little bit of sweat equity there may be deals to be found. Compare current value to value at the peak and then match that to the predictions of 15-20% drops in value locally.
• Look for homes owned by actual sellers with real equity with which to negotiate. They’re still out there.
• Be realistic. Yes, this is a buyers’ market. No, that doesn’t mean your offer 25 to 30% market value has a chance. If you want to offer 30% below list price, stick to homes overpriced by 20% and you’ll be in the right ballpark.

Buying real estate isn’t for everyone. There are no get-rich-quick opportunities. If that’s what you’re seeking, you may want to think about a roulette table.

Rapid appreciation a la 2005 will almost certainly never happen again. But appreciation is a possibility, this year or the next. No one knows for certain.

What you can control is the research you put into the process and the commitment to do what is needed, no matter which side of the closing table you intend to occupy.

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This seems to be the topic du jour across the real estate blogs so here we go:

1) The Phoenix real estate market will see values rise in 2008, unless they continue to fall or stabilize and flatten.

2) Foreclosures will not cause inventory levels to continue rising, unless the number of homes on the market increases.

3) ASU will beat UofA in football for the eighth time in 10 years.

If you’re looking for anything more concrete, I’m afraid you’ll have to find someone with a better crystal ball. And I wouldn’t put a whole lot of stock in what they’re saying anyway.

Could foreclosures cause a severe rise in inventory above and beyond what we’re already seeing? Possibly. But many of the homes being foreclosed already are on the market as so-called short sales. If anything, the change from a short sale to lender-owned means a home may actually have a chance to sell rather than remaining in listing purgatory.

As for price trends, predictions on a Phoenix-wide level are nearly as useless as predictions on a national level. The Phoenix real estate market isn’t one market but almost two dozen real estate markets, each with their own characteristics and price movement. The overall trend in 2007 was down but not by the same degree across the board.

One of the best blog posts I’ve seen recently answered the question of when the market will rebound. The response? When demand exceeds supply.

It’s just that easy.

There is pent-up buyer demand. My growing list of prospective buyers and the fence they’re sitting on is evidence of that. Your average bubble blogger doesn’t see that because they believe anyone who buys a home is irrational. They don’t understand that some folks just don’t want to rent.

Market mechanics can become self-fulfilling. Buyers sit on the sideline in fear of declining values. Sellers lower their price to try and attract a buyer. Buyers keep waiting for values to drop lower. At some point, the desire to buy will outweigh the fear and buyers will re-enter the market.

This is one of the reasons we say the bottom of the market can’t be timed. For the vast majority of buyers, they won’t know we have reached a bottom until we’re back off of it.

I don’t know when that bottom is. And I’m not about to try and take a wild stab at it just because the calendar says 2007 is just about to end.

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The (deleted) was a 1,500-word diatribe on the arrogance of teams who can’t seem to stay on their own sideline, or teams whose mascot has to be removed midway through the first quarter because he was become testy and was threatening to gore multiple people.

(On the first, my 8-year-old said at lunch … “I don’t care, Dad. They cheated.” No sense hitting her with the truth, which was …)

ASU got destroyed. It’s happened before. It’ll happen again.

Best comment of the weekend came from KOGO during live radio coverage of the Bay Balloon Parade along Harbor Drive (read that sentence again in case you missed how utterly ridiculous it sounds) …

“They have three goals at Texas every year: Win the National Championship, Beat Oklahoma and Beat Texas A&M. They didn’t do any of those, but they’re here anyway.”

Should we ever meet again, I hope the UT band will have learned a song without Texas in the title. Just one.

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