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Redfin Changing Tunes: We’re Not Just Cheaper, We’re Better … Even if We Can’t Explain Why

Jonathan Dalton, Phoenix Real Estate AgentIt’s been a while since I beat this dying horse but recent comments were far too difficult to ignore for long

And yet compared to other brokerages, Redfin’s business may thrive in the coming storm. After all, we’re at the beginning of one of the greatest buyer’s markets in U.S. real estate history, and Redfin is predominantly a service for home buyers.

As inventory piles up in every market, the voodoo promised by traditional agents offering private previews of their buddies’ listings doesn’t matter much to buyers anymore; consumers know that finding a home to buy has gotten easier, even as buyer’s agent commissions have increased.

The voodoo is in the minds’ eye in this case. The vast majority of agents use similar tools to those used by Redfin agents, assuming they look at the inventory at all. The tools offered to buyers by many aren’t substantially different than what Redfin offers.

All Redfin offers is a rebate. Talk all you want about wanting to change the industry and provide something truly of value, but you can’t do that when you offer less service than the rest of the industry. People aren’t nearly that gullible, Glenn. Unless they’ve got a pocket full of venture capital, that is.

I’ve offered the chance for Glenn to explain what makes a Redfin agent so much different than everyone else. Crickets chirped but no response was forthcoming. Why? Because giving buyers “the opportunity” to search for their own homes isn’t a value-added proposition. They’re already doing it. The value isn’t in the technology but in the value added after the point.

Over the longer haul too, the market hasn’t changed the fundamental dynamics driving our business: a generation of home-buyers that grew up with the Internet want data, not a sales pitch, and they feel most comfortable with a real estate agent who gets paid more when they are happy with the service they received, not when they buy a more-expensive house.

Unless the sales pitch has changed Redfin isn’t being paid on some magical happiness wage scale. They’re getting paid the co-brokerage fee offered by the selling agent and passing a portion back to the buyer. So if Redfin’s getting paid by the same co-broke as anyone else, wouldn’t that mean Redfin gets paid more for a more expensive home?

Rebate and flat-rate models always have been a niche, though good markets and bad.  There’s nothing to indicate that will be any different this time around.

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Reason Number 4,761 the National Association of Realtors is Useless

Jonathan Dalton, Phoenix Real Estate AgentWe pay dues but do the members even matter anymore?

At San Francisco’s Inman Conference, we learned that our money’s being spent on junkets for the higher-ups to appear and make us look foolish. In Minnesota, the head of the local association actively is urging people to get out of the real estate business because there are too many agents.

And thank goodness the pinheads from NAR’s legal department is selectively choosing which trademark violations to pursue. I’m sure the fact B.R. has been critical of the powers that be had noooooooooothing to do with the decision to send a cease and desist letter.

Selectively choosing, Jonathan? Isn’t that a bit unfair? Not really. None of the following comply with NAR’s narrow allowance of the Realtor name in a domain (nor do the examples that Jay found, all parked and ready to go.) All are here in Arizona and all were found inside of five minutes on Yahoo!

  • www.heismyrealtor.com
  • www.realtorrhonda.com
  • www.forarizonarealtors.com
  • www.greatazrealtors.com
  • www.arizonasfamilyrealtor.com
  • www.yourarizonarealtors.com
  • www.mynextazrealtor.com

If you’re going to C&D one or two, get them all. Don’t make criticism of the stupidity of NAR a requirement for trademark violation investigations. Try to settle for being merely incompetent and not morally corrupt.

Not to Joe and Rudy … I hope someone tries it. I really do. Since most of us are members only because we have to be to maintain our MLS access, there’s no exclusivity to being a REALTOR versus a regular real estate agent no matter what they say in that moronic ad campaign.

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Using Trulia Voices for Phoenix Real Estate: Caveat Emptor

Jonathan Dalton, Phoenix Real Estate AgentThe question posted on Trulia Voices: “How do I find out the average increase in value of a home in a year?”

It seems the person asking the question is debating a lowball offer on a property here in the Phoenix real estate market and wants to justify it by determining what the value would have been now if not for the escalation of prices in 2005. (Does this sound familiar? It should.)

Among the responses …

“A better idea is to have a Realtor who knows the area well do a comparative market analysis for you using the property of interest as a basis. And be sure that only RECENT sold comparables are used (I mean, within the last 3 months, even, given the undergoing correction of the market) to help you arrive at the fair price.” - from Chicago

“This is one of the many things a Realtor can do for you. If you find a good agent in your area, ask them if they can keep you abreast of the market. Lots of Realtors would jump at the opportunity to put you on an informational mailing list, I know I would :-” - from California

“Get a real idea of property values by visiting the assessors office in the area of Phoenix where you are considering, and this will help you see actual numbers to determine whether or not a property is really overpriced. ” - from New Orleans

“I would recommend that your agent prepare a comparative market analysis and send it along with the offer to justify the offering price. That’s more compelling than statistical data about historic appreciation and depreciation rates” - from Ahwatukee (yes, an actual local answer.)

In truth, caveat emptor doesn’t apply because the person asking the question isn’t paying for the answers they receive. That’s the entire point of Trulia Voices, and the one that is missed over and over and over again by agents whose primary answer is to say that the person need only consult a real estate agent.

By and large these folks don’t want to consult an agent, at least on a “formal” enough basis that there’s the slightest hint of implied agency. So telling them to go consult with an agent defeats the entire purpose.

As I said yesterday we traffic in knowledge. It’s our product. From a business standpoint, there’s little harm in providing some of that knowledge through a platform such as Trulia Voices since it’s possible someone who finds value in an answer may decide they want to work with the person who provided it. But that knowledge appears severely watered down when its surrounded by the usual NAR Consult a REALTOR drivel.

It also is watered down when answers that don’t apply to a local area are provided. For example, there’s only one assessor’s office for the Phoenix area. Maybe it’s different in Louisiana and there are city-level assessors, but locally in Phoenix the lone assessor’s office is the Maricopa County Assessor. (Pinal County has its own if you’re looking either in Queen Creek or Maricopa.)

We’ll also assume that the answer meant “visit” in a virtual sense; the Maricopa County assessor has a fairly handy website and there’s no need to drive to downtown Phoenix to access the exact same information.

It’s not a case of caveat emptor. It’s more a case of vos adepto quis vos persolvo pro. Most of the time, you get what you pay for.

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Phoenix Mortgage Rates Report: October 3, 2007

brian_smile.jpgI’d like to start off this morning’s report by recognizing my wonderful wife, Debra. We were married October 3, 1998 at St. Mary’s Basilica. Today makes it nine years. Debra balances the demands of family and work beautifully. Our daughter is an example of the former and our business profitability is a testament to the latter.

I clearly remember the day she changed my life with those beautiful blue eyes. Her beguiling smile still stops me in my tracks today.

I love you, Debra.

I’m still maintaining my lock-in at loan application recommendation. I just don’t see a tremendous amount of upside to floating the mortgage rate. There is an underlying fear of stagflation in the markets. The American consumer had the flu, caused by the arrested access to easy money. Higher oil prices create a commodity-push inflation effect that The Fed (thankfully) won’t ignore. While I agree with the folks from PIMCO that the consumer’s flu could throw our economy into a mild recession, I’m not convinced with their conclusion that the Fed will aggressively cut rates to stave it off.

We have four MAJOR economic reports coming out Friday, all employment related. If they are anemic, mortgage rates could drop dramatically; lenders will renegotiate rate locks to reflect that drop. If they appear inflationary, you’ll be protected.

I’m going to feature JUMBO mortgage rates today ($417,000-$1,000,000):

PROGRAM RATE APR

Annual ARM 6.250% 6.487%

5/1 ARM 6.500% 6.697%

10/1 ARM 6.750% 6.926%

30 Year Fixed 6.875% 7.124%

Rates available as of October 3, 2007. Subject to change and qualification. Equal Opportunity Lender.

It is important to note that jumbo mortgage rates in Phoenix are starting to decline. Wall Street has finally flinched and is buying jumbo loans again. The pressure from portfolio lenders caused the big boys to recognize that shutting off the faucet was costing them money. Greed and fear are the two motivators on Wall Street; they recognized that they threw the baby out with the bathwater and have let the “greed” factor overtake the fear factor” .

Contact me for a personal rate quote.

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