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Phoenix Real Estate Absorption Rate - October 2

Jonathan Dalton, Phoenix Real Estate AgentA day late, though either Tuesday or Wednesday soon may become the norm. Monday’s tend to be very busy days both in the real world of real estate and in the real estate blogging world as well. It doesn’t take much to find the entire day gone and no update complete.

Inventory fell off over the past eight days, to the tune of 300 fewer homes net than last as of last week. My expectation is net inventory will continue to fall in fits and starts over the final three months of the year for two primary reasons:

  1. October through December traditionally is a tough time to sell a home
  2. Sellers whose homes have been on the market through the summer, realizing the reality of number one, will pull their homes off the market upon listing expiration.

Having said that, a well-priced home still can sell during the fall months. It’s been known to happen from time to time. Thinning inventory means there’s less competition, so any property properly priced will appear more attractive.

Of course, thinning inventory is a relative term. I don’t expect to see the single-family detached numbers in Maricopa County fall to last year’s levels.

Back to the numbers … sales declined once again over the preceding 30 days, down to just over 2,500. And that led to an absorption rate now climbing over 16 months.

As always, click on a marker to see details for that particular city. And also as always, all data is provided by the Arizona Regional MLS and is deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

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Why Do We Allow Comments?

Jonathan Dalton, Phoenix Real Estate AgentA couple of weeks back a local real estate blogger posted what I thought was a great entry. I tried to tell him as much on his blog but the post was closed to comments. It seemed this was a post intended to be part of a larger library, a personal wiki as it were, and he didn’t want contrary comments to detract from the overall theme. Fair enough.

In general, however, most of allow comments because without comments a blog is nothing more than one person pontificating unto those willing to listen. And maybe there are some who are willing to listen without saying a word. But most people prefer actual conversation (intelligent and otherwise) … they don’t just want to hear your message but want to know they are being heard in return.

Whether to allow comments is a tricky subject at times on real estate blogs. There seem to be an inordinate amount of flamers - those looking to insult, injure or otherwise stir up the pot without adding substance to the conversation. Some use profanity. Some traffic only in banalities. Some comments probably don’t deserve the light of day.

But they still get it here - the only comments I edit or delete contain profanity or are blatant attempts to pimp a product via the links. Other than that, the store’s open for business.

Tupac ShakurSadly, not all blogs operate this way. And some choose the role of flamer without allowing any opportunity for those being roasted to comment. Without the ability to comment, the debate turns into 2Pac writing Hit ‘Em Up to answer Biggie Smalls.

(Would they both still be alive today if only they’d blogged and commented rather than written songs and packed a gat? The world will never know.)

It’s rather interesting to read a post criticizing those who dare be critical. It’s even more interesting to see out-of-context excerpts be used to prove a misguided point.

No one was rubbing salt in the wounds of Active Rain, John. What I was doing, and what many others of us who once wrote there were doing was asking what it was they were selling. Was it a product of their work (i.e. a free blog with a point system) or the product of the collective work of all the bloggers who have posted content there?

It’s a legitimate question, one that anyone posting content to another site ought to ask themselves. As I said, most of those asking that critical question over the past few days have asked ourselves that question … and then stopped contributing.

Most of the blogs on Active Rain are poorly written, not because of a lack of effort but rather because of misdirected effort. The goal is the points not the enlightenment. Surely someone as astute as yourself would know this, John.

There are hallmarks of quality writing. Some are more involved than the impressive use of the registered symbol after Realtor - like realizing the actual trademark is to have Realtor all in caps, a choice I intentionally decide not to make.

One error, two errors, three errors, four. Five errors, six errors I’ll read that blog no more.

(That last line might have been Eazy E, actually. Still sounds West Coast.)

Maybe buyers and sellers don’t care about some of these things. But they should. They should know whether they’re reading someone with legitimate knowledge or simply a yen for some artificial points. They ought to know whether the garbage being passed of as “the best blogs in real estate” by Realtor.Com have the slightest modicum of insight.

We traffic in knowledge, John. Experience. Insight. Expertise. These comprise all of our intellectual property. Would you trust the largest purchase of your life to someone who can’t see the wolf in sheep’s clothing right in front of them? I wouldn’t. Would you decide to place your home in the hands of someone who can’t turn a critical eye at the blathering of the sacred National Association of REALTORS? I wouldn’t.

There are many amateur writers in this nation and this world, John. I’d comment further but I’m currently off to the bank with one of my checks I earned through my free-lance writing work. I say this not to brag … sportswriting for the Associated Press will not be the catalyst for my retirement.

Rather, it’s more a case of chiggity-check yourself before you wreck yourself.

(That one was Ice Cube, pre-Are We There Yet?)

Happy commenting. I allow that here.

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