The West Coast has a phenomenon called the green flash. It happens at sunset. The density of the air refracts the light… blah… blah… blah …anyway…it’s really cool. While sunsets over the Pacific are gorgeous, you sometimes get a bonus of a green flash. That’s what the conforming mortgage markets feel like today. I advised everybody to lock-in loans at application, before Labor Day, and rates got a little bit better- I’m still advising clients to lock-in their loans at application. We had a little “green flash” last week. While the world believes that the Federal Reserve Bank will cut interest rates next week, optimists are starting the think that the cut may be as much as a half percent rather that the consensus quarter point. That thought is the “green flash” or bonus. Here’s how it happened:

1- The sub-prime, Alt-A mortgage fiasco is infecting Europe- Who knew the Germans and French owned Bobby Ray’s loan? This may curb foreign in investment in the mortgage-backed securities market.

2- More people are out of work than we expected. The dreaded “R” word, recession, is starting to be bandied about. That can mean much lower interest rates.

3- Barbie and Chairman Mao are doing battle. Higher prices of cheap Chinese goods are threatening to steal Christmas from the kiddies. Now, morally, I’m not so sure that’s a bad thing. Deemphasizing the materialistic nature of the holidays may cause us to rediscover the real meanings of Chanukah, Christmas, and Ramadan. While it is ironic that a religion-free country may force that rediscovery on us, it is, apparently, an economic mess. If the Chinese dig in and refuse to trade with us, the R word may move from economic chat rooms to the marquis of CNBC.

There’s your “green flash” if you’re getting a loan- bad economic news leads to lower rates. Why, then, am I so insistent upon locking loans at application? It’s a matter of risk. I believe that the exuberance in the bond markets is irrational. The traders believe the Fed will aggressively cut already. Any cut less than a half a point will be met with disappointment and higher rates. In short, the risk of mortgage rates that are .375% higher on September 20th is greater than the chance they may fall .125% by then.

Locking loans at application is still the prudent call.

Rates for Monday, September 10, 2007:

Program Rate APR

Annual ARM 5.625% 5.693%

3/1 ARM 5.750% 5.866

5/1 ARM 6.000% 6.070%

30 Year Fixed 6.000% 6.040%

Rates subject to qualification and market conditions. Equal Opportunity Lender.

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Tags: Real Estate Financing by Brian Brady
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It seems Business Week is surveying its readers to find the “best of the web.” And it seems a discount real estate broker in the Pacific Northwest isn’t in the list of nominees in the real estate category.

Says the real estate broker’s fearless leader …

But we’re the only ones challenging the traditional real estate industry, by actually brokering the purchase and sale of homes. The world may still need what one eye-rolling friend of mines now likes to call a YAREM (”Yet Another Real Estate Mashup”) but it absolutely cries out for someone using the Internet to change the game in real estate.

Of course, I probably don’t need to explain yet again that there are many, many real estate companies who offer flat-rate listings like this brokerage.

Or that there are many, many real estate companies who offer rebates to buyers using their services.

Or that there are many, many real estate companies who use the Internet to help clients in their home search.

Or that the business model only works in select markets where home values can pay for the company’s overhead after the rebate has been given to the buyer.

Not that there has been nothing unique about this company - informing potential clients that you’re not accepting listings for a couple of weeks in the heat of summer was a step very few have taken.

Given the vague description for the category - “My favorite place for real estate information is …” - I’m not sure how a company in only a handful of markets would expect to be in the running. (Curbed is the exception to the rule but the depth of information and the quality of photos is such it has tremendous appeal.)

You have to wonder whether there’s genuine angst about not being included among the contestants in the “Best of the Web” voting or if there’s genuine concern that maybe … just maybe … the media who love this real estate broker so much are noticing the emperor has no clothes.

Technorati Tags: Redfin, Business Week best of the web, real estate commissions, real estate marketing, real estate technology

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Tags: General Real Estate, Marketing, Technology by Jonathan Dalton
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… have posted at the Bloodhound Blog. We earned the coveted Black Pearl award for last Friday’s post Sell Your Phoenix Real Estate in Two Weeks.

The honor is as humbling as it is surprising - even my lovely wife assumed I was off on another rant.

Technorati Tags: Odysseus Medal, real estate blogging

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Sales continued to decline over the past 30 days in the Phoenix real estate market - down to just over 2,800 sales, which is equivalent to the sales levels during the winter holidays.

Inventory of single-family detached homes within Maricopa County surpassed the 40,000 mark. There still is a considerable amount of what I call phantom inventory- homes that by virtue of their price, condition or both have no real possibility of selling. We’ll explore this idea more later this week.

Maricopa County’s absorption rate is just shy of 14 months as of this update. For details on individual communities in Maricopa County, as well as Maricopa and Queen Creek, click on a marker below.

All data is from ARMLS and is deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

[rags]absorption rate, Phoenix real estate[/tags]

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Tags: Phoenix Inventory, Phoenix Market by Jonathan Dalton
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