Posted on October 16th, 2007 by Jonathan Dalton

In a few hours I’m going to be presenting six-year trends on the Phoenix real estate market in my office’s weekly sales meeting. I’ll elaborate on some of these points a little later today (I’ve got a listing with a repair issue I’ve got to take care of first) but here are what the numbers are telling me …

1) Inventory is at extreme levels not because of a record influx of properties being placed on the market in 2007 but rather because of remaining inventory from 2006 mixed with extremely slow sales in 2007.

2) Residential real estate sales in 2007 will need to pick up speed over the final three months else to match the pace of even 2001.

3) List price to sales price ratios are virtually worthless.

4) Cumulative days on market is significantly higher for the reasons mentioned in point 1.

Lastly, just for fun, let’s have your best guess at which area has had the most sales. The numbers I have are based on the Arizona Regional MLS map, which divides different sections of the Valley into “areas”. I’ll give you the top 10; tell me the top one:

1. Central Corridor - East of I-17, south of Metrocenter
2. Central Corridor - East of I-17, north of Metrocenter
3. North Phoenix/Kierland (Scottsdale)
4. SE Valley - Chandler/Gilbert (Loop 101 to Gilbert Road)
5. SE Valley - Gilbert (Gilbert Road to Pecos)
6. SE Valley - Mesa
7. Sun City/Sun City West
8. West Side - Glendale/Phoenix (Northern south to I-10)
9. West Side - Glendale/Peoria
10.  West Side - Surprise/El Mirage/Youngtown

Take your best guess … answers coming after the listing emergency and before the perfunctory parent-teacher conference this afternoon.

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