ALL PHOENIX REAL ESTATE

Posted on May 23rd, 2009 by Jonathan Dalton

This probably would look much better graphically and once I’m hydrated again after this morning’s sojourn through 18 hours in 91 degrees and what at least to us constitutes humidity I’ll attempt it. Until then, soldier on …

There has been much speculation over the past several weeks about the impact of the end of the lenders’ moratorium on foreclosures. Look around enough and you’ll see almost as much misinformation as useful facts. For instance, some point to the number of Notices of Trustees Sale and the lagging number of bank owned homes on the market as proof that there’s a wave coming, a wave bring held back by the moratorium.

Except the moratorium wasn’t on new bank owned listings - it was on the foreclosures themselves. Not every house subject to a Notice of Trustees sale actually goes through the foreclosure process. Some owners defy the odds and get current on their payments in time to save their properties, though these folks are in the minority.

There’s no question there was a lull in REO activity in April and May (figures are for single family detached homes in Maricopa County):

• January - 3,876
• February - 4,085
• March- 5,143
• April - 3,006
• May - 2,935 (projected at current pace)

At the same, the pace of sales of bank owned homes has accelerated:

• January - 2,507
• February - 2,856
• March - 4,037
• April - 4,489
• May - 4,468 (projected at current pace)

More homes are being sold than are coming to the market. So when the new wave of these foreclosed properties comes, depending on the height of the wave, it will be coming into a market where the inventory already has dried up. Anyone who lives in the desert knows what happens to rain that falls onto the dry land, at least for the initial set of showers.

What made me think of this was a comment I’ve seen recently on Trulia Voices about some agents advising their clients to wait before buying because they expect the new set of foreclosures to sink the market further. Maybe that will happen. But from everything that I’m seeing, the numbers are indicating something significantly different …

BUCKEYE

CAVE CREEK

EL MIRAGE

GILBERT

GLENDALE

GOODYEAR

MESA

PEORIA

PHOENIX

QUEEN CREEK

SURPRISE

Could I be wrong about this? Absolutely it’s possible. But I don’t think it’s probably. Because unlike the new wave of deep thinkers created by the Arizona Regional MLS slick new affiliation with the Crompton Reports (more on this later), I’ve been looking at the data for a little longer than a month.

As always, happy hunting.

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Categories: Phoenix Foreclosures, Phoenix Market, General Real Estate