Phoenix Real Estate Absorption Rate (Tabular): January 1 2008
Posted on January 2nd, 2008 by Jonathan Dalton
Here is this week’s Phoenix real estate inventory and absorption rate update in tabular form.
Standard disclaimers apply - what you see is data for single-family detached homes in Maricopa County (as the total) as well as Queen Creek and Maricopa (not included in the grand total at the bottom.) All data is provided by the Arizona Regional MLS and is deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
| CITY | SOLD 12/1//07 - 1/1//08 | ACTIVE 1/1 | Absorption Rate
as of 1/1/08 |
Change | Buyer/Seller |
| Ahwatukee | 7 | 61 | 8.71 | -1.14 | Buyer |
| Anthem | 34 | 565 | 16.62 | -0.47 | Buyer |
| Avondale | 68 | 1,001 | 14.72 | -2.82 | Buyer |
| Buckeye | 57 | 987 | 17.32 | -3.66 | Buyer |
| Carefree | 2 | 126 | 63.33 | -1.00 | Buyer |
| Cave Creek | 22 | 500 | 22.73 | 0.89 | Buyer |
| Chandler | 213 | 2,069 | 9.71 | -0.26 | Buyer |
| Desert Hills | 2 | 167 | 83.50 | -88.50 | Buyer |
| El Mirage | 15 | 415 | 27.67 | 7.94 | Buyer |
| Fountain Hills | 20 | 449 | 22.45 | 2.74 | Buyer |
| Gilbert | 206 | 2,299 | 11.16 | 0.29 | Buyer |
| Glendale | 143 | 2,087 | 14.59 | -1.09 | Buyer |
| Goodyear | 62 | 1,124 | 18.13 | 2.02 | Buyer |
| Laveen | 46 | 439 | 9.54 | -1.07 | Buyer |
| Litchfield Park | 18 | 458 | 25.44 | 7.41 | Buyer |
| Maricopa | 77 | 929 | 12.06 | -1.78 | Buyer |
| Mesa | 260 | 3,228 | 12.42 | -0.88 | Buyer |
| Paradise Valley | 15 | 336 | 22.40 | 0.34 | Buyer |
| Peoria | 103 | 1,737 | 16.86 | 0.96 | Buyer |
| Phoenix | 507 | 9,087 | 17.92 | 0.50 | Buyer |
| Queen Creek | 166 | 1,910 | 11.51 | -3.13 | Buyer |
| Scottsdale | 197 | 3,750 | 19.04 | -0.53 | Buyer |
| Sun City | 59 | 622 | 10.54 | -0.44 | Buyer |
| Sun City West | 44 | 550 | 12.50 | 0.89 | Buyer |
| Surprise | 166 | 2,038 | 12.28 | -0.63 | Buyer |
| Tempe | 48 | 472 | 9.83 | -0.39 | Buyer |
| Tolleson | 41 | 436 | 10.63 | -3.55 | Buyer |
| Waddell | 9 | 130 | 14.44 | -17.31 | Buyer |
| TOTAL | 2,432 | 36,810 | 15.14 | -0.16 | Buyer |
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Would you explain the absorption rate and how it is calculated for non real estate folks like me.
Sure thing, Frank …
Take the number of active listings and divide by the number of sales over a given time period (usually a month) and that’s the absorption rate - the number of months it would take to sell the homes on the market assuming no new homes are added to the mix.
Take Glendale … there were 143 homes sold over the past 30 days and there are just over 2,000 homes for sale. Divide the inventory by the homes sold and you get the 14.59. So at the current sales pace it will take 14.5 months to clear out all the homes currently on the market.
Make sense?
Yes, it makes sense, thanks for the quick reply. The only issue I see with the calculation is sales differ from month to month depending on the time of the year. To get more accurate rate, several months of sales need to be included to get a much closer measure of absorption rate. But thanks for simplifying the calculation to make it clear.
I absolutely agree. I’ve been tracking it for the last 18 months and watching the trend really is where it’s at.
I’ve been toying with the idea of posting charts for 2007 showing absorption rates for the different cities but just haven’t had a chance to sit down and play with the Excel data.
Where do you access your data set? is there a public data set i can get from Arizona Regional MLS, if so how?
ARMLS has a limited data set available on its public site: http://www.armls.com/stats.html
It won’t allow you to duplicate what I do here because it’s ARMLS-wide undivided. But it does allow you to get a feel for sales trends.
For me, I go into ARMLS and pull the data manually. I’d use Wyldfyre but the limits on properties it can pull get in the way.