We interrupt your normal programming for a blatant plug based on an actual e-mail I received today …

What’s the best way to search for a home in one of the MANY retirement communities in the greater Phoenix area? (all the way from Wickenburg to Apache Junction) We are overwhelmed!

(Tangent, courtesy of 10 Things I Hate About You … you can be overwhelmed and you can be underwhelmed, but can you ever be just whelmed? Onward …)

Since she asked …

Phoenix Retirement Real Estate.com features all of the listings from 20 active adult and retirement communities across the Phoenix metropolitan area, from Sundance in Buckeye to Fountain of the Sun in East Mesa.

Beginning next month (or maybe soon, if I can wrap up one other massive project), I’ll have monthly sales data for each of the communities also posted. You see, Phoenix Retirement Real Estate.com is a blog disguised as a website, allowing me to add dynamic posts on top of the homes searches.

Of course, being able to see all of the homes in these communities is just the start. Buying a home also involves finding the right property - in the location you want, closest to the amenities you need. For that kind of detail, contact me and I can provide more personal assistance.

I can’t tell you what are “good” and “bad” areas either legally (Fair Housing) or logically (both good and bad are subjective terms.) But if you’re dealing with substantive criteria, I’ll be happy to help.

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Years ago, during the days of the Asian Contagion that struck Wall Street and caused the New York Stock Exchange to close early because of extreme losses, there was an undercurrent questioning the Exchange’s intervention into the markets.

Let the markets run their course, the theory went. Market mechanics will take hold.

I’ve had the same thought every time there’s discussion of a bailout, or freezing of the foreclosure process, or whatever else may come out of the mouths of folks running for office. I’d rather they stay out of the way and let the markets run their course.

As my client, also a reader, put it to me yesterday as a conclusion to his e-mail … markets work. And he’s absolutely right.

Yesterday’s news that Phoenix real estate sales were up year-over-year for the first time in any month since July 2005 was good news, at least to me, because it indicates an increase in demand. Yes, the news was accompanied by a drop in the median price but at this point that’s to be expected. Banks are forcing the prices down in an effort to find the point where demand begins to erode the supply.

We’re getting closer.

Yes, there are 54,000 properties in the Arizona Regional MLS … yes, there are 38,000 single-family homes for sale in Maricopa County. But the latter figure has been dropping over the past several weeks.

It doesn’t take an advanced economic degree to understand what happens when supply starts to drop and demand starts to increase.

Markets work.

The worst isn’t behind us. But the beginning of the worst is.

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Have you ever wished there were an easier way to view homes for sale in the Phoenix real estate market? Something even easier than clicking on a link sent via e-mail each day? Thanks to the folks at Diverse Solutions, there is.

All of the property searches on my neighborhood sites - Arrowhead Ranch, Westbrook Village, Ventana Lakes, Phoenix Retirement Real Estate - can be set up as RSS feeds into the reader of your choice.

(RSS stands for Real Simple Syndication and it allows you to follow multiple blogs and other feeds from one site. There are a number of free readers available; I use Google’s reader, free if you have a Google account.)

Here’s how the feed looks on Google Reader …

Clicking on the address takes you to the full property page, scrolling down shows you the home’s basics along with the description written by the listing agent.

So if you’re one of those who enjoy looking at the “Just Listed” pages of the websites, this is going to be right up your alley.

In addition, if you search for properties through the Phoenix Home Search page, you can set up the results as an ever-updating RSS feed. This feature does require you to register with your name, e-mail and phone number - one of the few times I ask for such info, but I think it’s worth it.

Also, within the next day or two, I’ll be adding “just listed” searches for the various cities around Maricopa County. I’ve not yet decided how I’m going to present the information, but at a minimum that will make the RSS feeds available to those so interested.

These feeds unfortunately won’t replace the Client Gateway e-mails many of my clients receive, at least not for some, only because some of the searches go deeper into the listing details than I can go through an IDX feed. But for the rest, this is a quick and easy way to watch the Phoenix market from afar.

Happy hunting!

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Coming on the heels of the slowest March in 12 years, the Phoenix real estate market posted a year-over-year improvement in April - the first time there has been a YOY leap in any month since July 2005.

That’s 34 months ago and one month before the market started to cool.

April had 5,585 recorded sales in contrast to 4,855 sales for a year ago and 4,335 sales in March 2008. Given the improvement, the basic question is whether this is the first sign of the much anticipated recovery or merely a blip in a continuing weak market, said Jay Butler, director of Realty Studies in the Morrison School of Management and Agribusiness at Arizona State University’s Polytechnic campus.

According to Butler, there were 5,585 closed transactions this April compared with 4,485 closed sales a year ago. Butler also said the median price in the Valley fell to $210,000.

Lower prices can be expected since it is the bank owned home sector fueling the current real estate market. And as I’ve said at least a half-dozen times, that’s not necessarily a bad thing. (One of the first posts was back on January 28, when sales were stagnant - finding the bottom one foreclosure at a time.)

Banks are pricing homes aggressively to sell. Aggressive prices means lower prices, and lower prices means increased demand as affordability re-enters the picture.

Let me bring your attention to something from one other post from the past - What Will the Bottom Look Like:

When the real estate bottoms, what are you going to see swinging upward first - raw sales figures or home values? And do you expect a prolonged flattened trough or a relatively sharp “v” when it happens?

The sharp V rarely happens … rather you see the trough, with the only question being how long the trough stretches. It’s possible there’s more room to go but all evidence is starting to point toward a less steep descent in sales.

It’s just one month … but July 2005 was a long, long, long time ago.

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This is going to be another two-parter as I’ve get errands to run in the interim, but here’s the quick update …

Inventory remains flat with 38,357 single-family homes for sale in the Phoenix real estate market. Sales over the preceding 30 days increased to 3,698 for an absorption rate of 10.51 months.

Short sales, at least those entered correctly into the MLS, are running at about the same rate as the overall market - 453 sales against inventory of 4,652 listed homes for an absorption rate of 10.3 months.

The biggest movement continues to be in the bank owned arena, where the absorption rate now is down to 4.3 months. If no more REO homes hit the market, at current sales pace the current inventory would be cleared out in 4.3 months.

Of course, there are more and more REO homes hitting the market every day. But they are being absorbed by the market quickly as evidenced by the flat-to-lower inventory and the low absorption rate in the bank owned subset.

Bottom line - if you’re serious about buying and you see a bank owned home you want, make your best offer early and hope several others don’t follow you.

Full maps will come later today …

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